Easley begins: "A new UMass Amherst Poll released today found that Elizabeth Warren has opened up a four point lead on Scott Brown, 43%-39%. Warren's lead in the poll was within the margin of error, but the Democratic challenger leads Sen. Brown in several key areas."
Elizabeth Warren campaigns in Framingham, Mass., in September. (photo: Josh Reynolds/AP)
Elizabeth Warren Surges Ahead of Scott Brown in New Poll
02 December 11
new UMass Amherst Poll released today found that Elizabeth Warren has opened up a four point lead on Scott Brown, 43%-39%.
Warren's lead in the poll was within the margin of error, but the Democratic challenger leads Sen. Brown in several key areas. Warren leads Brown 38%-32% on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy. She also leads the Republican incumbent, 40%-29% on healthcare, and 37%-30% on taxes. Brown leads Warren 33%-25% on the handling of terrorism.
Brown leads with men, 46%-40%, but Warren enjoys a much larger lead with women, 46%-31%. Warren leads with both those making less than $40K (42%-27%), and those making more than $40K (48%-37%). Brown leads with those who earn over $100,000 a year, 48%-42%. Warren has a big lead with younger voters (18-29), 52%-21% and those over 55 (44%-41%), but Brown leads with voters age 30-54 (44%-38%). Brown leads with Republicans (93%-0%) and Independents (49%-31%), but Warren has a big lead with Democrats (78%-6%).
The most troubling head to head statistic for Brown is that he is only retaining 81% of those who voted for him in the 2010 special election. Seven percent of his support has already shifted to Elizabeth Warren, and she has kept 89% of those who voted for Coakley. Only 3% of those who supported Martha Coakley in 2010 are supporting Scott Brown in 2012. Elizabeth Warren has a big lead with liberals (77%-5%) and moderates (49%-31%). As expected, Brown dominates with conservatives (87%-4%).
The one thing that jumps out about these numbers is that Warren's leads are bigger than Brown's leads outside of his advantages with Republicans and conservatives. This is why beyond the horse race head to head numbers; it is fitting to describe Warren as surging.
For Brown to have any chance of victory at all he has to dominate with Independents and his current advantage isn't big enough. Scott Brown's biggest issue is his upside down approval rating. Only 37% of the state's voters gave Scott Brown a favorable job approval rating. In contrast, President Obama has a 49% job approval rating in Massachusetts.
In fact, it is the Obama constituency that is powering a great deal of the support for Elizabeth Warren. Like Obama, Warren has a big lead with younger and female voters. The worst news of all for Brown is that Obama has a big 15 point lead over Mitt Romney in the state. If the Obama voters come out to the polls next November, they will be supporting Elizabeth Warren.
None of this means that Warren should start writing her victory speech, but there are some strong omens in the polling that point to Elizabeth Warren being a powerful candidate. With almost a year to go until the 2012 a lot can happen, but it looks like the Warren/Brown contest is going to be an epic liberal versus conservative showdown. Brown may be fighting not only Warren, but the history and inertia of returning a liberal seat back to an unabashed liberal.
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What worries me is a direct Republican theft of votes. I am willing to bet that a secret task force is already at work on this.
You can count on MA. Now we need other Elizabeth-like candidates in the other states across the country!!
NEVER VOTE REPUBLICAN !!
Now she has to quickly learn to be politically savvy. She needs to hire the best handlers she can get. There she needs to take pages out of the GOP playbook.
I knew Martha Coakley was not a good choice, but the party was sooo enamored of the idea of having a woman senator, that a number of candidates that were Progressive, outspoken, and wanted the job got pushed aside.
And Shannon O'Brien? Please. Where was the support for Robert Reich. Nowhere. I virtually had my arm twisted to vote for O'Brien during the Dem. Convention. So, we got Romney.
Warren is a candidate with solid credentials for Senator, regardless of what body parts she has.
The problem in MA is that we have, until today only "promoted" women that played along. Thank goodness for Warren; she is her own person.
(Kudos to Coakley for growing into her position with her lawsuit against the banks.)
One last thing Jane Swift was one of our worst governers, and Patrick beat Kerry Healey on the issues. Its not about Gender.
Democrats all over the States must work super hard to elect a Democratic House and Senate. Obama needs the support.
The fool Tea/Norquist nutcase fringe will drive the economy into the dirt if they have a chance. And they will trample women's rights and health care and SS and education along the way.
We must support better education along with more jobs as major issues. The US is losing ground in the world because of slipping educational standards, and it is harming our society deeply. Just look at the kind of comments the far right come up with - ghastly ignorance underlies all of it.
Go Elizabeth. You are what the US needs.
NEVER VOTE REPUBLICAN!
I thought we are the intelligent leaders of our society. The deciders, so to speak.
Too bad my fellow white guys don't think much in the voting booth.
I can think of so many other states that her star power and character might prevail over a true prince of darkness.
Warren may make a "great' Senator in the eyes of many in MA, but she's still only 1 vote and the way things are going 1 vote doesn't mean much unless you've got 59 others for cloture.
What are the Democrats doing to stop this dishonesty?
Bush stole the election..twice.
Then Watergate happened. The bumper stickers bloomed in Massachusetts - "Don't blame me; I'm from Massachusetts." But it seemed to be too late. There was no place for the little people to go and vote. The Democratic Party became the party of cowards, and so began to lose even in Massachusetts.
It's time to bring back into American politics the people who say no to Wall Street and yes to the little guy. Where better to start than in Massachusetts, the home state of progressivism since before 1775?
Nicholas C. Arguimbau
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