Intro: "Millions of residents of the East Coast for whom a hurricane strike is, at best, a dim memory now face a serious threat from Hurricane Irene. For days computer simulations of the long-term trajectory of the storm had been shifting a bit to the east day by day. But the latest analysis by the National Hurricane Center has shifted the zone for the storm location five days from now to the west."
The New England Hurricane of 1938, also called the Great Hurricane, was beyond anything coastal residents in New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut had ever experienced or written about. (photo: public domain)
Irene, a Katrina in New York City?
25 August 11
After striking North Carolina, Hurricane Irene is expected to move up the Eastern seaboard and bring rain from Virginia to New York City. Evacuations have already begun. The East Coast's largest cities are preparing for the worst, possibly a direct hit. For continuing updates check here, here and here. -- CW/RSN
Millions at risk after shift in track for Hurricane Irene.
illions of residents of the East Coast for whom a hurricane strike is, at best, a dim memory now face a serious threat from Hurricane Irene. For days computer simulations of the long-term trajectory of the storm had been shifting a bit to the east day by day.
But the latest analysis by the National Hurricane Center has shifted the zone for the storm location five days from now to the west. [Here's a fresh post with new projections.] You can see the shift in the video below, which is an animation of the sequence of forecasts by the center:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0Am0gplqZ0
Trend is not destiny, of course, and the spaghetti charts of model runs remain mixed. But emergency planners in New York City are surely examining the maps of the city's hurricane evacuation zones and, while hoping for the best, preparing for the worst (as should everyone in the region).
The worst came in 1821, when a storm surge from a direct hit flooded lower Manhattan. As the city's Emergency Management Web site describes it:
The tide rose 13 feet in one hour and inundated wharves, causing the East River to converge into the Hudson River across lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street. However, few deaths were attributed to the storm because flooding was concentrated in neighborhoods with far fewer homes than exist today.
The population and investment in infrastructure has changed a bit since then!
Last night, in an e-mail exchange with Jeff Masters of the great weather site Wunderground, he noted a rising level of worry after reviewing the latest model output. His post this morning solidifies his concern:
Irene may make secondary landfall anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island and the southern New England coastline. In my opinion, New York City may be significantly impacted by Irene. It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.
11:07 a.m. | Updated Masters has added an update focusing on the potential storm surge in the storm zone:
Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map.... [Read the rest.]
You can keep track at the National Hurricane Center's page on Irene, Masters' blog, AccuWeather and Weather.com and Brian McNoldy's Tropical Atlantic Web site at Colorado State University.
I also recommend that you watch the following "news report" about an impending hurricane strike on New York City, from Bill Evans, the WABC meteorologist.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW5bhZ4qsvc
The video was produced to accompany a 2007 novel, "Category 7," co-written with Marianna Jameson, about an engineered super storm, Hurricane Simone. From the publisher's description the book is a Crichton-style thriller involving an intrepid, and attractive, meteorologist:
Created by secret, cutting-edge weather science, Simone is not just an unnatural disaster—she’s a weapon. Kate and CIA weatherman Jake Baxter must figure out how to stop the storm before she flattens New York City ... and identify Simone’s master before he has them both killed.
The book sounds, well, you get the idea; but the mock news report provides a pretty good preview of what you may see on local news later this week if you live in the Northeast.
|
THE NEW STREAMLINED RSN LOGIN PROCESS: Register once, then login and you are ready to comment. All you need is a Username and a Password of your choosing and you are free to comment whenever you like! Welcome to the Reader Supported News community. |
