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Krugman writes: "In a better world - specifically, a world with a better policy elite - a good jobs report would be cause for unalloyed celebration. In the world we actually inhabit, however, every silver lining comes with a cloud."

Portrait, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, 06/15/09. (photo: Fred R. Conrad/NYT)
Portrait, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, 06/15/09. (photo: Fred R. Conrad/NYT)


Things Are Not O.K.

By Paul Krugman, The New York Times

06 February 12

 

n a better world - specifically, a world with a better policy elite - a good jobs report would be cause for unalloyed celebration. In the world we actually inhabit, however, every silver lining comes with a cloud. Friday’s report was, in fact, much better than expected, and has made many people, myself included, more optimistic. But there’s a real danger that this optimism will be self-defeating, because it will encourage and empower the purge-and-liquidate crowd.

So, about that jobs report: it was genuinely good, certainly compared with the dreariness that has become the norm. Notably, for once falling unemployment was the real thing, reflecting growing availability of jobs rather than workers dropping out of the labor force, and hence out of the unemployment measure.

Furthermore, it’s not hard to see how this recovery could become self-sustaining. In particular, at this point America is seriously under-housed by historical standards, because we’ve built very few houses in the six years since the housing bubble popped. The main thing standing in the way of a housing bounce-back is a sharp fall in household formation - econospeak for lots of young adults living with their parents because they can’t afford to move out. Let enough Americans find jobs and get homes of their own, and housing, which got us into this slump, could start to power us out.

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+64 # LiberalLibertarian 2012-02-06 08:25
There are two primary forces that the Right Wing "facts, I don't wanna hear no stinkin' facts" folks are terrified of. First as Prof. Krugman notes is the fear of inflation. An inflationary period would essentially lower the cost of debt for the average middle class person. Without doing the high level math, the 20% interest on a credit card could become "only" 15%, making it easier to pay down quicker. Next and equally, if not more important is the political pressure against raising wages.

I say political because the unspoken truth about raising taxes on the wealthy is that it raises the income of the middle class. If an employer faces the choice of paying more taxes on his own pay or raising the pay of his employees and deducting that raise, he (or she) will give out the raise.

Allow some inflation; which the fed has demonstrated they can control, then wages increases. Raise the minimum wage to help the poor working class, and raise taxes on the wealthy. The economy will begin to self generate jobs and revenues increase.

This is without a stimulus, imagine if we also had an entire infrastructue recreation! Exactly what the righties fear, proof again thta the Left is almost always the right choice.
 
 
+42 # Michael Lee Bugg 2012-02-06 11:42
Amen! I have said the same about raising taxes on the rich, top 10% in my point of view, since before 2004! From 1943, when taxes were raised to pay for WW2, till Nixon cut taxes in 1970, the top margial income tax rate was 91% on ALL income ( no distinction between earned wages and capital gains) over $400,000 for married people filing jointly and over $200,000 for single people!!! Now the top 10% squeal like pigs in a slaughter house at the prospect of going back to 39% for the top wages income bracket even though they take the majority of their income as stock or stock options! In the 25 years of 91% the wealthy owners and top management did not pay themselves grandiose salaries or huge bonuses because 91% over $400,000 went to federal income taxes and state income taxes. They put company profits back into their company to avoid taxes! This resulted most of the time in an expanding work force and often meant higher wages to compete for labor! The top ten percent don't have this incentive today because tax rates are so LOW! On top of this they have used "free trade" to extract wage and benefits cuts from labor, or have exported millions of manufacturing jobs and thousands of technical jobs to cut labor costs and enhance profits which they didn't even share as dividends! I say bring back at least a 51% top tax bracket on ALL income over $10 million and return to 20 graduated brackets to make it more fair.
 
 
+29 # globalcitizen 2012-02-06 08:58
Liberalism is not the left. It still promotes class deformed civil societies and class deformed markets where corporations and finance, banks, collude to enslave, drive down social wealth, into tiered slave wage systems.

Obama's crowing about the job figures represents the co option, distortion, propaganda of all class ideologues, who leave out facts, lies through omission to hide the reality of the failure of Late capitalism, and the whole of class history, itself.

Slaves have jobs, but no income, and many people have had to take drastic pay cuts from middle class jobs that no longer exist. This constant push to enslave, crush, destroy the middle classes, while pushing for fascist austerity throughout the world, will create a crash in itself, when demand fails to enrich the fascist parasitical 1 percent, because it destroyed the class-wealth mechanism itself, with the collapse of global middle classes and global revolutions to take down this unstated reality and propaganda.
 
 
+22 # LiberalLibertarian 2012-02-06 09:44
Your points are well given. But lets point the train in the correct direction first. We ain't going to get to an ideal society, let alone begin to define it until turn it around from the direction we are in now; dictatorship and Fascism at worst, High tech Feudalism at best.
 
 
+5 # MidwestTom 2012-02-06 09:16
I had hoped that Professor Krugman would have explained the significance of the dropping of 1,200,000 possible jobs in the calculation of the unemployment rate. Apparently the unemployment rate calculated taking the number of people working divided by the number of jobs available, and then subtracting the result from 1.0 and converting to a percent. By dropping a record number for job available the unemployment number went down. The governments number indicate that the total number of jobs available in this country is shrinking at a record rate.
 
 
+11 # LiberalLibertarian 2012-02-06 10:07
Tom,

I think the calculation you described was for the jobs filled rate?

The unemployment rate is not, as far as I know, calculated using available jobs in the equation. Why? Because it is irrelevant to the jobless rate. To make it relevant you need to take into account that the number of jobs created by each new job. But then, what you are calculating is potential jobs at 100% employment. That number, of course, is a forecast, which we all know has a degrading reliability at each generation of calculation.

I am sure a full fledged economist could describe it better, but in short you just used a typical Right Wing tactic of changing the subject.
 
 
+8 # Todd Williams 2012-02-06 10:22
As I have pointed out before, many of these people who have fallen off the unemployment roles, are now self employed having started home-based businesses. I've been doing it for over 30 years and it is a very liberating experience. Recent articles that I've read say this is happening now but very difficult to put a number on how many are doing it.
 
 
+6 # Rick Levy 2012-02-06 17:34
Maybe the real reason that people fell off the unemployment roles is that they starved to death.
 
 
+5 # reiverpacific 2012-02-06 10:43
Quoting
I had hoped that Professor Krugman would have explained the significance of the dropping of 1,200,000 possible jobs in the calculation of the unemployment rate. Apparently the unemployment rate calculated taking the number of people working divided by the number of jobs available, and then subtracting the result from 1.0 and converting to a percent. By dropping a record number for job available the unemployment number went down. The governments number indicate that the total number of jobs available in this country is shrinking at a record rate.

Right! And they never include those who have given up looking (rising daily) and small business owners who have been buried as part of the domino effect.
Stat's can do anything you want them to -except reflect the true nature of the beast at issue.
 
 
-31 # Robt Eagle 2012-02-06 11:27
So Krugman's premise is flawed once again because he has failed to include all the pertinent data. The fact is that the Obama Administration is flexing these numbers so hard that they are not reliable at all. Even so, tell it to all those folks out of work because of Obama's horrible policies that have cause three years of abysmal jobs numbers. Certainly his prior policies have taken so long to work that I for one do not believe they have influenced the economy at all. What more likely has occurred is that supplies are gone and they must be replenished so jobs are appearing, LESS those who have just quit looking (which is most likely the lion's share). Let's get off the Obama cycle of American destruction and get some one in office who will actually change something for the better. If you don't think it is a Republican, well then watch and see the destruction of what is left of America with four more years of failed Obama policies.
 
 
+17 # Todd Williams 2012-02-06 12:01
Oh and Bush's 2 wars, tax cuts and perscription drug plan, aka pharma giveaway, had nothing whatsoever to do with the recession or the recovery? But of course, in the Eagle/rightwing bizzaro world, none of that matters one iota. Ignore the obvious facts if that makes you feel better. Most of us know what went down and it wasn't pretty. You know something, dude? I'm getting sick and tired of arguing with your wornout, anti-Obama tirades. It's wearing kinda thin, don't you think?
 
 
+4 # PaineRad 2012-02-06 15:55
Acually, the number of those not included in U3 (the 99ers, discouraged and underemployed) are included in U6. One just has to look a little deeper into the stats.
 
 
+7 # Rational Dem 2012-02-06 11:18
The statement that 1.2 million people dropped off the rolls in January is wrong, and deliberately distorted by the Republicans for a talking point. January is the month that, each year, the BLS adjusts its population figures to keep current with the most accurate baseline. The drop of 1.2 million took place, but not in one month. It was spread out over the entire year, but only showed up when they adjusted the population figures. The job shrinkage is not new. It began at the end of Clinton's second term and has been pretty consistent ever since. Lots of factors contributed, not the least of which is the decision by families to get by on less inorder to have a better quality of life. That shows up in earlier retirements, single income households, going back to school, and working from home in less than full time employment. This isn't all a bad thing.
 
 
-37 # Robt Eagle 2012-02-06 09:16
Krugman states the obvious! Didn't comment on how the numbers are flawed. He gets paid for this assessment? Paul, give us some real information, not this tripe you lay out there as a commentary. We want to see the real info, including the bad part that really exists. Do some actual reporting for a change, rather than ride that Nobel piece of junk!!!
 
 
+21 # Todd Williams 2012-02-06 10:25
Dude, you don't have to be so damned negative and nasty to boot. Why is it that all you righties have to be so negative, depressing and down right mean on this forum? "Nobel piece of junk? " You could only dream of winning a Nobel prize in anything.
 
 
-28 # Robt Eagle 2012-02-06 11:20
Todd, come on...Krugman hasn't written anything close to economic theory in years. Bt the way, if they gave Obama a Nobel prize for what he was about to do, don't you think they want it back right about now. Back to Krugman, he never puts anything of substance in writing on this site. It is all conjecture and no factual evidence. Mean spirite? OK, I'll be nice, nice: Hey Paul, can you please give us something of value that has some substantial quantatative and qualatative data. At least cite something with factual data once in a while. OK, that's nicy, nicey...now let's see Paul Krugman do real economics that he piuts his ass on the line for!
 
 
+10 # Todd Williams 2012-02-06 12:05
I just knew you couldn't be rational and respectful. It's not in the Rethug nature. The biggest thing that I see is the horrible negativity coming from the right wing. It's all gloom and doom and the world's coming apart. And Obama, that Muslim s.o.b. is behind everything. Please Eagle, can't you ever give it a break? Can't you ever comeup with some middle of the road, positive ideas here?
 
 
-14 # Robt Eagle 2012-02-06 19:39
Todd, when are you going to realize that Obama is trying to destroy this country from the top down. His policies are totally destructive. It has nothing what so ever to do with bias, it is his policies. Why is he doing what he is doing, who cares, just that it is destroying the fabric of America. We thrive on hard work and inventing new ideas. We help those who need help, but do NOT tax us, let us do it through the goodness of our hearts, through charity. Obama wants more and worse gov't to do what he believes we can't do on our own. No entity or individual should be bailed out for making bad choices. Get off the Rethug BS and use your brain. Obama and the Dems want to control by using the down trodden to get votes so they promise more of nothing. When there are no more earners paying taxes, who will support the down trodden??? Simply math, try it on.
 
 
+14 # PaineRad 2012-02-06 16:06
Rbt, How would you know? I realize that this may come as a shock to you, but the Chicago, Supply Side and the Austrian schools are not the only theories of economics. In fact none of those "schools" of economic delusion have ever produced the results they claim and are completely at odds with Adam Smith and David Ricardo, among others.
 
 
+18 # Peace Anonymous 2012-02-06 09:42
The "purge and liquidate crowd." They souind like a nice bunch....LOL! Well stated.In a world where the only thing that matters is the bottom line. Sooner or later every game of monopoly ends.
 
 
+2 # LiberalLibertarian 2012-02-06 10:09
I think they live down the street from the "confidence fairies"!
 
 
+2 # LiberalLibertarian 2012-02-06 12:03
Minus? For those that read Krugman, we all know he usually uses the name confidence fairies to describe the right wing theory that what ails our economy is a lack of confidence. I was supporting Krugman's.

Minus??
 
 
+8 # reiverpacific 2012-02-06 09:53
I agree with "gobalcitizen" about the generally accepted definition of "Liberal -Left" especially in the USA which has been steered further and further right since Reagan.
But I have to say that to me, Krugman gets the self-sustaining part backside-foremost.
Wouldn't it make more sense to focus on creating work by a nationwide renovation and upgrade on the infrastructure which we all depend on no matter how poor or wealthy, especially public transport and EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY high-speed inter-city rail with central hubs and regional spurs so that dependence on the automobile is considerably diminished and social interchange encouraged.
This could be partially jump-started by diminishing the military to "lean and mean, defense-only" status, as it already has more than it needs to destroy the planet?
THEN the housing problem could be in turn addressed, including renovation, remodeling and sale or lease (by the government) of the properties to the new employed, ergo the private housing industry could recover as part of a more natural sequence of sustainable recovery. As part of this recovery, mandated and even subsidized requirements that a large percentage of renovated and new housing be have solar as part of the upgrade. -Germany is already doing this so don't tell me it "can't be done".
I'm not a hi-flyin' analytical economist like Mr. Kruger but simply proposing basic, ol' fashioned common sense of sequence, cause and effect.
 
 
+11 # Michael Lee Bugg 2012-02-06 11:19
I am for cutting our "defense" budget in half to actual defensive levels from our current never ending offensive level.This country has been on a "let's make war" footing since our Civil War in which weapons makers became quite wealthy, and certainly since WW2! Almost every Congressional district has a defense contractor, sub-contractor, or military base, so substantially cutting defense quickly would create immediate higher unemployment! All we can do for now is stop increases and avoid anymore trumped up elective wars, like with Iran for example. Then when unemployment gets low we can start actual major cuts so that those affected have somewhere else to go. Parr of the problem is that there is still a wide-spread belief that "wars are good for the economy" which is derived from the effect that building up for WW2 had on helping to end the Depression. Won't these believers don't realize is that there was a major recession after weapons production was curtailed and millions of troops were discharged. The Depression oy truly ended when we started building up for the Cold War and when we became the consumer good provider for Europe and Japan until they got all new factories making their own goods! Until 1980 we maintained the dominant economy because there was a large, well paid, unionized middle-class that could buy most of what we made. The insanely greedy neo-conservatives who hate the unions have all but succeeded in destroying that with "free trade" exporting jobs!
 
 
+2 # Todd Williams 2012-02-06 12:08
Mr. Bugg, I love your comments. Those are the exact kind of positive, roll-up-your-sleeves-and-get-to-work comments the right wing lacks. I think Obama's ideas for defense spending will go a long way in helping our economy recover.
 
 
-6 # PaineRad 2012-02-06 16:10
Paul Krugman has a great grasp of national internal macroeconomics. Just keep him as far away as possible from trade (or more appropriately called "cross border self-sourcing or law and decency evasion).
 
 
0 # dorianb@fuse.net 2012-02-07 23:04
Good Comment, reiverpacific!
 
 
+3 # cordleycoit 2012-02-06 10:55
Think it's time to phase out the old slash and burn model. It bubbles and leaks and is not able to function well enough, it is not dependable: except we can depend on it to breakdown over and over. We cannot afford the Marx model, it collapsed of it's own volition. Let us heartily avoid neofeudalism and look at cooperative and mutalistic economic expression. Any one with an answer come forward now whilst the slash and burn boys are in intensive care.
 
 
+14 # wfalco 2012-02-06 11:04
The statistics may help Obama in his re-election bid but that is,essentially, the only good news about it.
The system is broken for the blue collar crowd who are still disproportionat ely affected by the new economy.
Some states (such as mine-Florida) have declined reiverpacific's "upgrade on the
infrastructure" solution.Down here in the sun baked South the elected officials don't look to kindly on "big government" solutions to job creation.
Seems to me it sure would have made sense on many fronts for Governor Scott to accept that 2 billion he snubbed his nose at for high speed rail.He was only slightly criticized when he declined the federal moola as he was only being a concerned steward of the tax payers dollar. In many states these days the mood is similar when looking at state legislatures and the Repug governors. It is the "trickle down" of anti-Obamaism.
So Krugman is right about his skepticism. Some jobs are being created-but I am guessing primarily in low paying retail and hospitality. Nothing much in the construction or manufacturing front where skilled tradesmen or machinists made a decent wage in years gone by. Combine this with the Right's attack or "purge" on anything union and a real recovery for the working man will not occur.
 
 
+12 # edwin_ 2012-02-06 11:32
there is something the politicans COULD do to create jobs and that is to elininate the H1-B visa program that allows sciencist & engineers to come to the US & take american jobs. There are over one million H1-b visa recipients in the US making over $40/hr.

The banks and hiTech firms lobby the politicians to get cheaper labor.

Obama was recently asked at the yahoo town hall meeting about H1-B visas and his answer was the he hears that there is a shortage of engineers. It seems Obama is listening to the lobbyist and not the people

Politicians love corporate welfare
 
 
+5 # LiberalLibertarian 2012-02-06 12:07
Unfortunately, the cuts that the Right Wing idiots have forced our states to perform on our college system has in fact cut back on trained engineers. That has created a need to import them, plus for the corporation boosters out there, that has a giant plus of lowering wages.

Corporations win/win
Real People lose/lose

Isn't that what it is all about?
 
 
+8 # Todd Williams 2012-02-06 12:13
Edwin, that's a good idea EXCEPT for the small fact that we are extremely deficient in science/engineering grads for these jobs due to the draconian cuts in the education budgets at the federal as well as state level. There are a surplus of engineers, for instance, in India. That's why they come here to work. Refund primary and advanced education and that'll increase the pool of US citizens who can handle these jobs.
 
 
+1 # leedeegirl 2012-02-06 19:00
Quoting
Edwin, that's a good idea EXCEPT for the small fact that we are extremely deficient in science/engineering grads for these jobs due to the draconian cuts in the education budgets at the federal as well as state level. There are a surplus of engineers, for instance, in India. That's why they come here to work. Refund primary and advanced education and that'll increase the pool of US citizens who can handle these jobs.


WHY, Todd? does it really cost MORE to get a degree in engineering/science than it does to get a degree in almost any other field? OR is it just that Americans don't want to study to BE engineers/scientists? I am by no means a Republican, and i don't mean to sound "mean," but i DON'T GET IT ... PLEASE explain ...
 
 
+7 # edwin_ 2012-02-06 19:24
I've been an engineer for 40 years and have been layed off 6 times after after the influx of h1-B visa recipients in aprox '96 . 3 times were directly related to the H1-b Visa employees . I even had to train them.

I know many laid off engineers and many that have left the profession because of low pay and unstable work loads.

I just don't buy the shortage argument. More college kids would go into engineering if the pay was better.

I also know many recent engineering grads that are out of work . This would not be happening if there were not one million indians here on H1-B visas.
 
 
+5 # tomo 2012-02-06 11:33
When Hamlet is told the band of wandering players come late to the court will be used "according to their desert," he shouts something like "By God, man! Use them BETTER; were every man used according to his desert, who among us would escape whipping?" The sense here of the moral frailty of us all seems sadly lacking in our present time. We deny our mutual need and our deep dependence. Among those of us who were bailed out by the bank bailout, there is a terrible fear that others--less worthy than they--may be dealt with with similar compassion. Our elite is currently in the gripe of a mean-mindedness that does not make them happy (just hear the tenor of their rancor) but that guarantees that everyone else in our nation will be unhappy. This is indeed an evil spell--perhaps the kind of thing Jesus says can only be ended with prayer and fasting.
 
 
+4 # reiverpacific 2012-02-06 12:20
Quoting
When Hamlet is told the band of wandering players come late to the court will be used "according to their desert," he shouts something like "By God, man! Use them BETTER; were every man used according to his desert, who among us would escape whipping?" The sense here of the moral frailty of us all seems sadly lacking in our present time. We deny our mutual need and our deep dependence. Among those of us who were bailed out by the bank bailout, there is a terrible fear that others--less worthy than they--may be dealt with with similar compassion. Our elite is currently in the gripe of a mean-mindedness that does not make them happy (just hear the tenor of their rancor) but that guarantees that everyone else in our nation will be unhappy. This is indeed an evil spell--perhaps the kind of thing Jesus says can only be ended with prayer and fasting.

Well, some have been on enforced fasting for too long but I get y'r point.
Another apt Shakespearian quote would be from King Lear "Handy-Dandy, which the justice, which the thief"? -especially in these times.
 
 
0 # bluepilgrim 2012-02-06 23:53
I never trust government data -- even the GAO is suspect to me. The government has been massaging stats and data for so long that even when they are not deliberatly lying I don't think they are trustworthy.

Of course, as a socialist, I don't see anything other than a fundamental systemic change and abandonment of capitalism as being of lasting value. At the least we see that regardless of how many people have jobs the economy and the working class still goes downhill, and the rich get richer.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29120
PHONY DATA: America's "January Jobs" are Statistical Artifacts

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
Global Research, February 7, 2012
paulcraigrobert s.org

Last Friday the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the first month of this new year 243,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate (U.3) fell to 8.3 percent. This good news is a mirage. It is due to faulty seasonal adjustments and to the BLS birth/death model. In a prolonged downturn, seasonal adjustments and the birth/death model produce nonexistent employment.
[...]
 
 
0 # dorianb@fuse.net 2012-02-07 23:14
Excellent comment, blue pilgrim.
 
 
+7 # Peace Anonymous 2012-02-07 05:10
As I read the left vs right comments I scratch my head. Our problems have nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans. The problem is that a very small but extremely wealthy portion or the population believe the wealth of the world belongs to them. They own you, the system and the guys in Washington. You can talk forever about the politics. That is just nonsense. This is all about control and while you are arguing over the pointless this group gobbles up more or your rights and more of your money.
 
 
+1 # dorianb@fuse.net 2012-02-07 23:17
You said it, Peace anonymous.

"Our problems have nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans".
 
 
+5 # cypress72 2012-02-07 10:05
I would love to get all the people who regularly comment on this site into a big conference room in some hotel. That would be a terrific event, but it would definitely have to include dozens of security personnel !!
 

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